Huatai Securities (601688) Annual Report Comments: Traditional businesses have their own points of view, self-operated drag performance is slightly lower than expected
Investment Highlights The company’s performance is lower than the industry as a whole, with ROE being 5 in most industries.
In 2018, the company’s operating income, net profit attributable to its parent, decreased by more than 23.
75%, a larger margin than the industry as a whole (-14.
The company’s overall active leverage ratio 2.
99, a decrease of 0 from 2017.
61 pct; ROE is 5.
32%, a decrease of 5 from 2017.
24 pct, but still at the overall industry level (3.
Brokerage business: The market share continues to rank first in the industry, and “Zhangle Wealth Link” has become the core carrier for the company to obtain customers and collect customer assets.
In 2018, the company’s net income from brokerage business decreased by 19 each year.
57%, slightly better than the industry average (23.
The company’s stock base trading volume ranks first in the industry.
In 2018, the company continued to optimize and upgrade its mobile platform “Zhangle Wealth Link”, which has become the company’s core carrier for acquiring customers and gathering customer assets, and has now been upgraded to 6.
0 new version.
Credit business: The market share of Liangrong increased slightly, the scale of fair pledges decreased, and impairment provision increased by RMB 600 million.
As of the end of 2018, the company’s margin on margin trading was 435.
1.5 billion, a cumulative market share of 5.
76%, a slight increase of 0 from 2017.
03pct, the overall maintenance guarantee ratio is 272.
82%; the size of stock pledge is 539.
04 trillion, a decrease of 369 from 2017.
7.1 billion yuan, with an average performance guarantee ratio of 231.
The company’s accrued impairment losses in 2018 increased by 6 compared with 2017.
RMB 0.99 million, of which the impairment loss on financial assets purchased under resale agreements was 4.
74 trillion, the provision for bad debts receivable and other receivables is accrued to 3.
Investment Banking Business: Revenue growth was significantly smaller than the industry, and equity financing performed well.
The breakdown of the company’s investment banking business income in 20184.
41%, significantly better than the industry average (-27.
According to wind data, the company’s IPO underwriting market share is 14.17%, up 11. from 2017
29pct, ranking second in the market; the market share of additional underwriting is 14.
82%, an increase of 7.
71pct, ranking second in the market; the interbank market share of debt financing underwriting amount is 3.
44%, a decrease of 0 from 佛山桑拿网 2017.
Asset management business: Revenue from asset management business increased instead of falling, and the average monthly management scale and active scale ranked 3rd and 4th in the industry, respectively.
The company’s asset management business revenue in 2018 increased by 7 per year.
26%, significantly better than the industry average (-11.
The company’s collection, orientation, specialization, and public fund size accounted for an increase and decrease of + 2pct, -7pct, + 3pct, 0pct in 2017, respectively, and business structure improved.
According to the statistics of the Fund Industry Association, Huatai Asset Management Co. ranks third in the average monthly scale of private equity asset management; private equity actively manages the average monthly scale of assets ranks fourth in the 杭州夜生活网 industry.
Self-operated business: Affected by the market downturn, equity assets shrank, and the proportion of bonds increased significantly.
In 2018, the company’s self-operated net income decreased by 50 per year.
87%, comprehensive income growth rate 2.
79%; if the influence of caliber is excluded, the actual comprehensive income will increase by 3.
09%, a decrease of 3 from 2017.
From the perspective of position structure, bonds, stocks, funds, derivatives, and others accounted for an increase or decrease of +23 in 2017, respectively.
At 9 points, the proportion of equity assets (stocks + funds) decreased, and the proportion of bonds increased significantly.
Profit forecast: The company’s share-based trading market share will still rank first in the industry in 2018, intelligent transformation of outlets will be at the forefront of the industry, and wealth management transformation will continue to deepen; the performance of asset management business will be dazzling, with the average monthly scale and active management scale rankingThe first echelon of the industry; the investment banking business has made significant progress, and equity investment has leapt to the second in the industry.
The company’s lower-than-expected 2018 performance was mainly dragged down by its self-operated business. With the gradual recovery of the capital market in 2019, we are optimistic about the company’s future performance.
We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 0.
85 yuan, 1.
00 yuan, 1.
21 yuan, PB corresponding to the closing price on March 29, 2019 are 1 respectively.
66 times, 1.
56 times, 1.
45 times, maintaining the rating of “prudent increase”.
Risk warning: market downside risks, market turnover shrinks severely, industry competition intensifies, and equity transfer risks increase